Web Development

FW: A question on what the 'future web will resemble'

Some time ago I, and several other colleagues, was asked by my managing director if I could help out answering what the "Future Web Will Resemble". The following was my email reply to him, but I think it holds up as a blog post as well. I have expanded/clarified it slightly and also corrected obvious spelling mistakes or punctuation.

For me personally: I think the future of the web will be more geared towards offline, only managed online, so these are some that pop up in my head right now. First the ingredients:

Facebook novelty wears off

There is already talks about "Facebook adaption rate in UK dropping off" and similar for most online social networking sites. Facebook suicides are common, I have several friends who have killed their Facebook profiles. In short, after the first "love" has died out with social networking people start to think sites like Facebook actually drain more energy than it gives. Besides, deleting apps you never wanted sent by "friends" that you have lost touch with (probably for a reason), isn't all that it's cracked up to be.

Non-instrusive services and "communities" gain better foothold

In the backlash of Facebook, enter services like Flickr, Upcoming, Dopplr and Twitter. They ask nothing of you. They don't show you ads. If you want to contribute, fine, they will help you do so, if you don't want to, just browse, and in the cases of Flickr and Upcoming they actually help you sort out things in your offline world, only making it visible online. I am part of several groups in both Flickr and Upcoming where I meet the other group members more or less regularly and the only common denominator is that we are members of the same site/group and that we share interests (Photography, Gigs, Web Development etc).

Unlike Facebook, which allows me to keep in electronic touch with "friends" I normally don't socialize with any longer, Flickr and Upcoming helps me do things off-line, with likeminded people. Flickr and Upcoming are apps-free, clutter-free, spam-free, ad-free, clever and to the point.

Adobe Air and desktop apps that go online

I also think "online" will be different from a marketing perspective, with desktop apps built in Adobe Air, that connects to the internet but doesn't take the long route via your browser.

This also will mean we know a lot more about the user and their setup, not to mention their interests which means we will know if they are interested in what you have to sell, AND that they have capabilities to see anything/everything we throw at them.

API's

Application Programming Interfaces (API) will hit home everywhere on most sites that have/provide data and/or services.
API’s are about enabling other sites to connect to, and use the data provided by your service. What better way to market your excellent service than to let someone else (users and other services) do it for you? Flickr, Upcoming, Twitter, Dopplr, Google Maps, YouTube etc are all excellent examples of this and their API's have played a big part in their spread and uptake.

iPhone's competition forces changes to how we see, and create, mobile internet

It is not a secret that the iPhone has already done this, but only for its current users. What the iPhone has highlighted though is the benefits of being able to use mobile internet in a proper graphical way (often via an API with a new presentation layer), much like what we are used to in our computers (WAP anyone? Didn't think so…). iPhone took the first step, now Nokia, SonyEricsson, Motorola, Samsung etc, who hold the larger chunks of market share are all dying to get in there, all of which is a good thing for us as creators of services. Microsoft has signed deals with Nokia for pushing out Silverlight, Google Android starts off with the HTC phones, but will expand their offering soon to other phone makers.

OpenID will hit home

OpenID, already being adopted by the big names out there, will mean that users only will need one login, for all their online needs, despite them being signed up to various services by various providers. You don't have to remember hundreds of passwords any more.

Conclusion: So…the future of the web will resemble…

Data owners will realise that it is more important for people to use and trust their service than anything else, as this builds current and future revenue streams. This will lead to sites and services that are specialised, but really good at what they do, with API's that make them accessible on all devices (mobile or not) and especially within other services you might be using (Facebook or not), possibly by tying them all together in an Air desktop application created by someone like Netvibes.

Or it will be completely different and you can either ignore this e-mail, or save it for future pub laughs.